After Trump Hits Venezuela, Will China
Invade Taiwan?
Gatestone Institute,
by
Gordan G. Chang
Original Article
Posted By: Mercedes44,
1/6/2026 9:20:29 AM
China has never been more trade-dependent in its history. Xi Jinping's only hope for an economy that is probably contracting is to increase exports. He knows â or should know â that he is in no position to disrupt international commerce.
Xi apparently believes that a high degree of tension is in his personal interest because continual confrontation would prevent political adversaries from challenging or even deposing him.... Any incident, therefore, could spiral out of control.
The United States has treaty obligations to defend two likely victims of Chinese aggression â Japan and the Philippines â and has a moral obligation and many practical reasons to defend Taiwan.
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Reply 1 - Posted by:
Hazymac 1/6/2026 9:30:22 AM (No. 2050284)
If they invade Taiwan, their economic future will be disastrous, a blivet. Trump will see to that. We in the West shouldn't need much of anything the Chicoms sell. Cut 'em off, and let them starve.
6 people like this.
Reply 2 - Posted by:
seamusm 1/6/2026 9:46:58 AM (No. 2050291)
The ChiComs certainly think they are entitled to follow Trump's example. But their economy is already in trouble, and the consequences of invading Taiwan will not end well for Xi. Though it would definitely push America to hurriedly develop its own resources like rare earths.
3 people like this.
Reply 3 - Posted by:
janjan 1/6/2026 10:16:05 AM (No. 2050307)
If China wanted to attack Taiwan they couldâve easily done it while Biden was President. There would have been no opposition. Theyâve missed their chance for now. The pearl clutchers need to take a xanax and go suck their thumbs.
4 people like this.
Reply 4 - Posted by:
WV.Hillbilly 1/6/2026 10:34:44 AM (No. 2050322)
With what oil?
3 people like this.
Reply 5 - Posted by:
bighambone 1/6/2026 10:52:32 AM (No. 2050335)
#3 has it right. If China wanted to invade Taiwan, they missed their chance during the Biden years. As the extreme leftist, progressive, and socialist Democrats who were actually running the White House during the Biden years were very unlikely to respond in an effective military manner to such an invasion with âsleepyâ Joe tucked in not knowing which way was up. Donât ever think that China was not aware of all that. China knows that the outcome of their future possible invasion will be a lot better off if they wait for the next leftist, progressive, and socialist Democrat to be sitting in Oval Office in the White House.
2 people like this.
Reply 6 - Posted by:
NYbob 1/6/2026 11:01:31 AM (No. 2050344)
They can't do it, even if they really really want to. Too much water to cross. If they try and use airpower, they will lose an air force in record time. They think they are playing a long game, but they really need to focus on their peasants and what to do if they get restless.
2 people like this.
Reply 7 - Posted by:
BarryNo 1/6/2026 11:16:36 AM (No. 2050353)
China was NEVER, NOT going to invade Taiwan. People should get a life.
0 people like this.
Reply 8 - Posted by:
bpl40 1/6/2026 11:42:24 AM (No. 2050370)
They simply don't have the capability. China backing Venezuela and the US (under Trump) backing Taiwan (with Japan, Australia & S. Korea in tow) is simply not the same thing. Besides 70% of China's oil comes through the straits of Malacca which India can choke within hours. When the Quad (US, Australia, Japan, India) gets together they don't discuss the weather.
5 people like this.
Reply 9 - Posted by:
DVC 1/6/2026 12:33:19 PM (No. 2050410)
Not likely. The reality of invading Taiwan is far, far more difficult than is understood by those who don't follow military history, weapons and such in great detail.
VERY difficult to project power over 100 miles of rough, open ocean. And the side of Taiwan towards China, where there is some small shelter from open ocean swells has flatter land, but is very heavily defended, The ocean side, farther to go still for an invasion force, is steep and made of cliffs, and is subjected to weather coming in from the wide open Pacific....huge swells, storms, etc.
And supplying an invading army over the beach is extremely difficult. In Normandy, only over 20 miles, and with large numbers of premade,prefab 'Mulberries' dock sections to make quick harbors.....it was still extremely difficult to supply the army that had been put on the beach.
And this was after Churchill, blamed for the terrible defeat at Galipoli in WW1, had spent 20+ years thinking, planning, consulting with experts and plotting how to avoid that disaster again. And their 'test run' in WW2, they made a small landing on the French coast, IIRC, in 1943....which was a disaster, and mostly hidden from the press, not much mentioned in history. They learned more from that.
China taking Taiwan is not going to be easy, likely won't happen.
If you are interested there are some good videos out there discussing this in detail.
2 people like this.
Reply 10 - Posted by:
DVC 1/6/2026 1:10:26 PM (No. 2050424)
China imports 15% of the world's oil, and has very little of it's own. And 80% of China's oil imports 2/3 of it's total trade pass through the Strait of Malacca, a 40 mile wide choke point which the US Navy would choke to a halt in event of any Chinese attack which hit any US military assets, like bases in Japan and the Philippines. Close off Chinese traffic at Malacca, and China is out of fuel in a couple of weeks...and ALL their ships burn oil.
2 people like this.
Reply 11 - Posted by:
danu 1/6/2026 2:42:45 PM (No. 2050464)
the ppl of taiwan know they are the redz most desired target. they train and plan accordingly.
just hope they don't give good chips to bad broligarchs.
0 people like this.
Reply 12 - Posted by:
mifla 1/7/2026 7:31:57 AM (No. 2050702)
China's weapons are cyber (disruption of governments and companies), biological (COVID), and slave labor (we can make things cheaper than the US). I don't fear a military invasion from them. They are, however, a formidable enemy who must be taken seriously.
0 people like this.
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