The Butler Probabilities
Posted By: sagman, 7/23/2025 7:07:51 AM
On July 13, 2024, 20-year-old Thomas Crooks, before witnesses and unimpeded by law enforcement, climbed onto the roof of the American Glass Research (AGR) building at the Butler Farm Show. He was 441 feet away from the stage on which candidate Donald Trump was addressing 15,000 enthusiastic supporters. . . .These parallel reports set forth a detailed narrative of official mismanagement, disorder, incompetence, and inexplicable failures that converged to afford Crooks the clear and readily preventable opportunity to murder Trump.
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The Butler Probabilities
20 replies
On July 13, 2024, 20-year-old Thomas Crooks, before witnesses and unimpeded by law enforcement, climbed onto the roof of the American Glass Research (AGR) building at the Butler Farm Show. He was 441 feet away from the stage on which candidate Donald Trump was addressing 15,000 enthusiastic supporters. . . .These parallel reports set forth a detailed narrative of official mismanagement, disorder, incompetence, and inexplicable failures that converged to afford Crooks the clear and readily preventable opportunity to murder Trump.
It doesn’t look like it’s some nefarious plot. It’s not a Deep State move, though one could probably argue otherwise. Why is Ronald Rowe, the former acting director of the Secret Service, still on the agency’s payroll? Susan Crabtree had a lengthy piece about this odd non-departure. It turns out that he could be using sick leave, which has no payout, to stay on at the Secret Service. However, there are also regulatory protections in place for senior political appointments that are set to expire after 120 days.
Just Bomb Iran Already
4 replies
I know it’s not fashionable among some on the right, but we have a moral and strategic obligation to attack Iran right now. Not later. Not down the road, after more bogus negotiations with these glorified bazaar merchants who specialize in stringing along credulous Westerners until they get what they want. Today. We have the forces in place, and if we don’t do it, they’re going to end up with the bomb.They cannot end up with the bomb. They’ll use it. It’s hard to mutually assure destruction with a psychotic death cult.
In Defense of Justice Amy Coney Barrett
12 replies
Yesterday, Justice Amy Coney Barrett joined the 5–4 majority that ruled against President Trump in the case of Department of State v. AIDS Vaccine Advocacy Coalition. This has occasioned a great deal of criticism of Barrett from the right — to the point at which many commentators have felt comfortable describing her as a “mistake,” or even as a “DEI hire.”
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This is nonsense. Barrett is a terrific justice . .
‘Now Let Him Enforce It’
7 replies
There’s a famous quote on the subject of judicial power — that is, real judicial power, and not just the imagined kind that we’ve grown accustomed to accepting in a legalistic society.
It comes courtesy — though we’re told it’s an apocryphal quotation — of Andrew Jackson, our 7th president.
Jackson was informed of the Supreme Court’s decision in an 1832 case, Worcester v. Georgia, which involved a complicated set of circumstances by which a missionary to the Cherokee Nation was imprisoned for violating a state law that he claimed was non-binding on sovereign Indian territory.
President Trump ordered the Secret Service on Friday to provide him “every bit of information” about his two would-be assassins. “I’m entitled to know,” he told The Post. “I want to find out about the two assassins. . . . Why did the one guy have six cell phones and why did the other guy have [foreign] apps?“No more holding back because of Biden. . . . I’m entitled to know. And they held it back long enough.
“No excuses. Six cellphones were allegedly found in the car of Ryan Routh, the 59-year-old suspect in the second assassination attempt on Trump last September ....
Representative Jamie Raskin (D-MD) claimed Friday on MSNBC’s “The Reid Out” that Elon Musk and President Donald Trump were conducting a “rapidly expanding and accelerating coup.”
Raskin said, “If the courts move with dispatch, they might be able to prevent a lot of damage from being inflicted. But nobody should normalize what’s going on here. We’ve got the wealthiest man in the world who cannot be president because he was born in apartheid South Africa and then made his way to Canada and then to America because he can’t be president, except if he can buy himself a de facto presidency . . .
White House: Our Attempts at Keeping
Iran from Getting Nukes Through Diplomacy
‘Didn’t Work’ 37 replies
Iran from Getting Nukes Through Diplomacy
‘Didn’t Work’ 37 replies
On Friday’s broadcast of the Fox News Channel’s “The Story,” White House National Security Communications Adviser John Kirby stated that Iran will not be allowed to get a nuclear weapons capability, and “We had tried to do this through diplomacy. Obviously, that didn’t work, because the Iranians were not willing to negotiate in good faith.”
Alan Ritchson, the star of Amazon’s hit show, Reacher, claims to be “very disturbed” that police officers can get away with murdering people “all the time” and are never held accountable for it.
The 41-year-old actor cast his accusation about lawless police officers in his interview with The Hollywood Reporter last week in which he made a series of admissions of his extreme views.
What DeSantis Won’t Admit
12 replies
The Monday headline on Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in the New York Times said, unintentionally, exactly what is wrong with the GOP Establishment’s response to former President Donald Trump. The headline:
DeSantis Bluntly Acknowledges Trump’s 2020 Defeat: ‘Of Course He Lost’
The Times reports this:
Mr. DeSantis, who is polling well behind Mr. Trump for the Republican presidential nomination, had acknowledged on Friday that the former president’s false theories about a rigged 2020 election were “unsubstantiated.”
Say what? Allegations that the 2020 election were rigged are “unsubstantiated.” Really?
Can Ron DeSantis Win?
34 replies
Of course, Ron DeSantis can come back and win. Anybody in the race can win – we saw Trump come back in 2016 when most everyone wrote him off in the general. Now it’s the Florida governor’s turn to be written off, but he’s not exactly in the same place that Trump was. DeSantis is a strong second right now. For him, it’s not a matter of a miracle happening, threading a bunch of needles to win the general when rational betters would bet against you like in 2016. No, Ron DeSantis has a plan, and there’s a method to his muddling through.
I floated an idea about the relative value of having Ron DeSantis in the GOP presidential race in a Facebook post a little over a week ago, and for whatever reason it was one of the few things I’ve put on that platform that hasn’t been suppressed in the past several months. [Snip] Bear in mind, I’m not suggesting that you have to vote for DeSantis. I’m simply advocating for the positive properties of having DeSantis around as at least a second option in this presidential race on the Republican side.
And I’m a Vivek Ramaswamy fan. I’ve loved most of what Ramaswamy has said on the campaign trail.
Most Active Articles (last 48 hours)
Barack Obama has broken his silence on calls from Donald Trump for him to be prosecuted by unequivocally rejecting his successor’s accusations that he tried to engineer a “coup” following Trump’s 2016 election victory by “manufacturing” evidence of Russian interference.
Obama’s office took the unusual step of issuing an emphatic refutation after Trump told reporters that his predecessor had “[tried] to lead a coup” against him and was guilty of “treason” over intelligence assessments suggesting that Russia had intervened to help Trump defeat Hillary Clinton in the campaign.
“Out of respect for the office of the presidency,
Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard released further evidence Wednesday morning, which she claims shows the Obama administration's direct involvement in the 2016 post-presidential election Russia hoax.
Gabbard, describing the plot as the "most egregious weaponization and politicization of intelligence in American history," posted a series of lies which have, in her view, been debunked by declassifying a 2020 House Intelligence Committee report.
The report was an assessment of how the Obama administration manufactured a January 2017 Intelligence Community Assessment, which portrayed Russia as having influenced the 2016 election in favor of Donald Trump.
That assessment was "false," Gabbard writes,
House Oversight Votes to Subpoena
Bill and Hillary Clinton, James Comey,
Loretta Lynch and Others 21 replies
Bill and Hillary Clinton, James Comey,
Loretta Lynch and Others 21 replies
I was a kid during the Watergate hearings in 1973 and 1974, after Richard Nixon's historic landslide re-election. I wasn't too interested in politics at that point - I was 12 - but my Dad made me sit and watch all the coverage with him, admonishing me that "this is history being made." This is the same man, mind you, who a year or two later made me read Aristotle's "Organon" - then quizzed me on it afterward. But I suspect my interest in politics began with Watergate, with that historic event.
Now, we're seeing an equally historic event. And the legal wranglings are beginning: On Wednesday
The Butler Probabilities
20 replies
On July 13, 2024, 20-year-old Thomas Crooks, before witnesses and unimpeded by law enforcement, climbed onto the roof of the American Glass Research (AGR) building at the Butler Farm Show. He was 441 feet away from the stage on which candidate Donald Trump was addressing 15,000 enthusiastic supporters. . . .These parallel reports set forth a detailed narrative of official mismanagement, disorder, incompetence, and inexplicable failures that converged to afford Crooks the clear and readily preventable opportunity to murder Trump.
Ghislaine Maxwell is assembling “new evidence” to present to the feds when she meets with them this week, her brother told The Post.
Jeffrey Epstein’s madame never gave her version of events to federal prosecutors before her 2021 trial, which resulted in a 20-year sentence for recruiting women and underage girls for Epstein to sexually abuse. She also never testified in her own defense.
“She will be putting before that court material new evidence that was not available to the defense at her 2021 trial, which would have had a significant impact on its outcome,” Ian Maxwell told The Post in an email Wednesday.
America deserves better than the degenerate propaganda machine that passes for “elite” journalism. We deserve better than the evil “cracked out clown show” the Democratic Party has become.
The New York Times and The Washington Post all but ignored DNI Tulsi Gabbard’s bombshell press conference Wednesday, at which she announced that she had sent criminal referrals to the DOJ and FBI implicating former President Barack Obama and his national security team in the “seditious conspiracy” of the Russia collusion hoax.
Paramount has wrapped up long-running negotiations that will bring the entirety of the South Park catalog to its Paramount+ streaming service, but it’s going to cost them.
The media company has agreed to pay the production company owned by South Park creators Matt Stone and Trey Parker $1.5 billion for the global streaming rights for the next five years. HBO Max previously held the streaming rights to the show. Paramount has, instead, aired South Park original films on its streaming service.
The federal government has awarded a contract to build and operate a sprawling tent camp at Fort Bliss, an Army base in Texas, to serve as an immigrant detention center.
In the Trump administration’s latest move to vastly expand space for such detention, the work would turn the base in El Paso, with more than 1 million acres and an airport, into a deportation hub with 5,000 beds. That would make it the largest immigration detention facility in the country. An official for US Immigration and Customs Enforcement said that the agency “is indeed pursuing all available options to expand bedspace capacity.
Barack Obama wants you to think he had nothing to do with the Russia collusion hoax, but that lie is unraveling fast. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard has declassified a trove of documents that expose how the Obama administration faked the January 2017 intelligence report to falsely accuse Trump of colluding with Russia.
The evidence includes a 2020 House Intelligence Committee report, which confirms that despite no cyber interference from Russia, Obama pushed for a new intelligence community assessment (ICA) in late 2016 to shape a narrative that Putin was helping Trump. It was all part of a desperate attempt to undermine a duly elected president.
New York City Mayoral Poll: Socialist
Zohran Mamdani Leading Opponents Cuomo,
Sliwa, Adams 18 replies
Zohran Mamdani Leading Opponents Cuomo,
Sliwa, Adams 18 replies
Socialist New York City (NYC) mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani is leading his opponents, former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, Republican Curtis Sliwa, and current NYC Mayor Eric Adams (D), according to a recent poll.During an episode on Mark Halperin’s podcast, Next Up with Mark Halperin, it was revealed that poll research conducted by WICK, found that in four-way NYC mayoral race, Mamdani led with 39 percent, while Cuomo received 21 percent of support.Sliwa followed, receiving 18 percent of support, while Adams received nine percent.
In a two-way race between Cuomo and Mamdani, however, the two candidates were neck-and-neck, with Cuomo receiving 42 percent, and Mamdani receiving 41 percent.
Dem Rep. Beatty: Economic Numbers Are
Just Made Up, ‘What They’re Reporting
Are Just Numbers’ 17 replies
Just Made Up, ‘What They’re Reporting
Are Just Numbers’ 17 replies
During an interview on CBS News on Tuesday, Rep. Joyce Beatty (D-OH) argued that economic indices on the stock market, employment, and inflation are just being made up by the Trump administration and “what they’re reporting are just numbers and we don’t know how much accuracy [there] is.”
Host and CBS News Chief Washington Correspondent Major Garrett asked, “Congresswoman, the White House says, repeatedly, and there are some numbers that back them up on this, the stock market is up, investment in this country is up, employment is up or stable, inflation is down or stable. Most of the economic indices they point to are on the upswing.
French President Emmanuel Macron and his wife, Brigitte Macron, have filed a defamation lawsuit against American conservative commentator Candace Owens over claims that the French First Lady was born as a man.
The first couple of France filed a 218-page lawsuit in the U.S. state of Delaware on Wednesday against Mrs Owens and her businesses, alleging that she has financially gained from making “demonstrably false” claims about Brigitte Macron being secretly transgender.
Owens has previously stated that she would stake her “entire professional reputation on the fact that Brigitte Macron is in fact a man,” while claiming that Macron was, in fact, her brother
Comments:
The author doesn't address this point: nothing's come out to suggest Crooks knew the roof was purposely left unguarded. It makes no sense for a plotter to say, let's make that perch accessible and hope someone takes advantage of the opportunity. One other thing. Why have Crooks' parents been invisible since the shooting?