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With Evergrande’s liquidation, is China’s
Potemkin economy nearing its end?

Original Article

Posted By: DVC, 2/7/2024 11:22:00 PM

Last week, a court in Hong Kong ordered that Evergrande, China’s massive property developer, must be liquidated. Real estate accounts for about one-quarter of China’s GDP, and Evergrande isn’t the only troubled part of the Chinese real estate sector. While I’d always like to see China constrained, not only is a collapsing China dangerous, but the real estate collapse also reminds us of what’s happening domestically. Business Insider reported on Evergrande’s liquidation, which has long been expected and which will be carried out in an orderly fashion. The assets are valued at $245 billion (which I suspect is inflated), while the company’s debts are $300 billion.

Comments:

China's real estate market is a fraud, nearing collapse.
The US commercial real estate market is not going to collapse, but it is going to make a massive readjustment. Lot's of commercial real estate was purchased based on money loaned at 3%. With money at 6% or greater, they will be unable to make their business work, and they will be forced to sell. The real estate will be revalued to about half what it last sold for. Lots of current commercial real estate is massively overvalued.

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Reply 1 - Posted by: EJKrausJr 2/8/2024 12:28:18 AM (No. 1653026)
World-wide Humpty Dumpty times!
7 people like this.

Reply 2 - Posted by: JackBurton 2/8/2024 7:28:38 AM (No. 1653127)
After covid, we found we could (and people wanted to) use electronics to work from home. The demand for office space is down. Retail space? Who has the money? I agree there will be an adjustment. But a big blow up overseas will only make our RE look better, safer. China, on the other hand, doesn't let people invest overseas, people know their markets are manipulated, they have enough gold, so where to invest? Ghost cities. 15 years ago a Chinese ex-pat was telling me her well off relatives in China were clamoring for funds so they could make more RE investments. I believe it is China's Achilles Heel. I always thought that, if push came to shove, it was where the single,. small, innocuous arrow should go.
3 people like this.

Reply 3 - Posted by: Bur Oak 2/8/2024 7:49:42 AM (No. 1653140)
The USA may not be far behind China. See the article about the CBO report further down.
0 people like this.

Reply 4 - Posted by: Strike3 2/8/2024 9:22:06 AM (No. 1653216)
It might be satisfying to watch both China and Russia collapsing if America was not sliding down the same cliff herself. There is going to be a huge dogfight sometime soon and thanks to God and the 2nd Amendment, we are the dogs with all the guns.
2 people like this.

Reply 5 - Posted by: NessunDorma 2/8/2024 1:01:29 PM (No. 1653354)
I've been hearing for years--decades maybe--about China's imminent financial collapse. Seems to me it should have happened by now.
2 people like this.

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