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Polling site FiveThirtyEight gives Biden
narrow edge over Trump

Original Article

Posted By: Dreadnought, 6/11/2024 11:49:25 PM

Polling website FiveThirtyEight (538) gave President Biden a narrow edge over former President Trump Tuesday as it launched its model for predicting the 2024 race for the White House. Biden wins about 53% of the time in the site’s computer generated analyses compared to 47% for Trump. “Trump has a lead in most key swing states (but) they are close enough that a small amount of movement — or the polls being a little too favorable to Republicans — could result in President Joe Biden’s reelection,” the site said in explaining the model. The model says the most likely electoral college result is 276 for Biden and 262 for Trump. In 0.3%

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Reply 1 - Posted by: DVC 6/11/2024 11:54:59 PM (No. 1735685)
I don't know anything for sure except Trump has my vote. End of discussion.
48 people like this.

Reply 2 - Posted by: bighambone 6/11/2024 11:56:48 PM (No. 1735686)
Only through mass cheating that would be enough to rig the election.
60 people like this.

Reply 3 - Posted by: markhooton 6/11/2024 11:59:22 PM (No. 1735687)
Didn’t I read an earlier article quoting Nate Siver saying too bad Biden hasn’t dropped out ?? So, now he’s winning?? HA!!!
51 people like this.

Reply 4 - Posted by: snakeoil 6/12/2024 12:03:06 AM (No. 1735689)
Since the demoncraps are considering replacing Quid Pro Joe with a retarded chimp I find this hard to believe . What's all this stuff about his approval rate is an all time low.
22 people like this.

Reply 5 - Posted by: Nimby 6/12/2024 12:06:26 AM (No. 1735692)
Let’s see how those polls look a week from today after Hunter’s conviction
15 people like this.

Reply 6 - Posted by: Dreadnought 6/12/2024 12:15:40 AM (No. 1735695)
Nate Silver left 538 in May 2023. 538 is owned by ABC (Disney.)
30 people like this.

Reply 7 - Posted by: Catherine 6/12/2024 12:26:34 AM (No. 1735698)
Biden gets maybe 15 people to show up anywhere he speaks, if that. Trump gets tens, if not hundreds of thousands. There is no place on the planet where Biden is ahead of Trump.
34 people like this.

Reply 8 - Posted by: Newtsche 6/12/2024 1:04:42 AM (No. 1735702)
Generic Democrat candidate for POTUS maybe, FJB c'mon man.
12 people like this.

Reply 9 - Posted by: Annie Xango 6/12/2024 1:11:21 AM (No. 1735703)
Oh PUUUUULEEEZZZE!!!!!
19 people like this.

Reply 10 - Posted by: valinva 6/12/2024 2:14:01 AM (No. 1735710)
These are computer simulations is runs over and over using different scenarios. The article says that the same survey system was wrong about Trump beating Hillary in 2016. Think about the weather forecast you see for the next 30 days which is created by using computer models. It's is constantly revised because it is wrong. Computer models do not use enthusiasm and other human reactions and actions. Do not believe this garbage.
15 people like this.

Reply 11 - Posted by: FL_Absentee_Voter 6/12/2024 2:50:44 AM (No. 1735720)
#6 - Thank you. I had never heard of them (it?) until ~90 seconds ago.
8 people like this.

Reply 12 - Posted by: Californian 6/12/2024 4:01:04 AM (No. 1735727)
Same simulations said She had a 99% chance of winning in 2016.
12 people like this.

Reply 13 - Posted by: varkdriver 6/12/2024 4:40:28 AM (No. 1735742)
#4, that chimp would be a helluva lot more alert, alive, and sentient than the current occupant of the Oval Office. Sudden thought: do they still use that silly small prop replica of the Oval Office for Joe to sit in, and people tell him that yes, he is actually in the White House, and yes, he actually is President? Meanwhile, Barack and Valerie Jarrett and Susan Rice perform Their Satanic Majesty's Request? [apologies to Mick and Keith and Bill Wyman]
7 people like this.

Reply 14 - Posted by: Strike3 6/12/2024 6:56:58 AM (No. 1735772)
538 must be using that new AS software to create their results, Artificial Stupidity.
11 people like this.

Reply 15 - Posted by: NamVet70 6/12/2024 7:56:07 AM (No. 1735803)
Most polls have not figured out how to account for the enormous level of vote fraud that happened in 2020 and 2022. However maybe we can get enough turnout this time that even that level of fraud can be overcome. MAGA
8 people like this.

Reply 16 - Posted by: thekidsmom66 6/12/2024 8:21:02 AM (No. 1735815)
Charlie Ken was discussing this very thing yesterday. The problem is that while many people don't like Biden, they are not registered to vote. And even if 75% of the country "supports Trump", for example, if they aren't registered to vote and/or don't vote, Biden will win.
3 people like this.

Reply 17 - Posted by: Birddog 6/12/2024 8:22:09 AM (No. 1735819)
Yet....Nat Silver, founder of 538 and a World famous polling Guru sez...."Biden is sooo far behind and damaged, the Dems face a (marginally) better chance by having him drop out and ANYBODY take his place. Currently Trump winning is a near certainty"
5 people like this.

Reply 18 - Posted by: Kate318 6/12/2024 9:14:30 AM (No. 1735849)
Ask yourself, “Given all I know about the mood and state of the country and the world, does this make sense?” If the answer is “no,” pay it no more mind and move on.
4 people like this.

Reply 19 - Posted by: BarryNo 6/12/2024 9:34:39 AM (No. 1735866)
Garbage in, Garbage out... A typical method for Democrat Victories.
6 people like this.

Reply 20 - Posted by: janjan 6/12/2024 9:48:13 AM (No. 1735876)
538 admits that Trump is ahead in almost all of the swing states but then says those leads might disappear so they declare Biden ahead? They are totally discrediting their poll with their own words. Nothing but liberal media propaganda.
8 people like this.

Reply 21 - Posted by: MissMann 6/12/2024 9:52:16 AM (No. 1735880)
It is so distressing that so many Americans still think FJB is the way to go. What does it take to wake them up?
8 people like this.

Reply 22 - Posted by: Lawsy0 6/12/2024 9:57:34 AM (No. 1735888)
FiveThirtyEight now accepts cash to give Biden narrow edge over Trump.
5 people like this.

Reply 23 - Posted by: formerNYer 6/12/2024 10:04:15 AM (No. 1735892)
the NY Daily News makes MNDNC & the Times look conservative. Don't believe a word from that rag.
5 people like this.

Reply 24 - Posted by: mc squared 6/12/2024 11:27:40 AM (No. 1735911)
Anybody notice this? FTA: 'Trump has a lead in most key swing states (but) they are close enough that a small amount of movement — or the polls being a little too favorable to Republicans — could result in President Joe Biden’s reelection' That aforementioned 'small amount' is enough to be made up with a water leak or 'disaster' at the counting place. If Donald wins, that will be used for months because a poll called it too close.
0 people like this.

Reply 25 - Posted by: MindMadeUp 6/12/2024 11:40:34 AM (No. 1735923)
So, I guess this web site factors in Democrat vote fraud in its analysis.
3 people like this.

Reply 26 - Posted by: SALady 6/12/2024 12:39:29 PM (No. 1735954)
Hear me out -- we need to live our lives over the next 5 months working tirelessly to get Donald Trump and Republicans in Congress elected as if this were 1,000,000% true!!!!! Complacency is our worst enemy at this point. In a fair and honest election, I'm not sure that Senile Joe bidet wouldn't come in 3rd (behind Trump and Kennedy). But with the Demon-Rat mastery of election theft, President Trump needs to win every state by such a large margin that all the Demon-Rat thievery can't deny President Trump his victory. You can sleep at Thanksgiving. Work non-stop until November!!!!!!!!!
1 person likes this.

Reply 27 - Posted by: MickTurn 6/12/2024 1:23:19 PM (No. 1735989)
This is what happens when polls are rigged by polling 75% Democrats and 25% Republicans...THIS technique is the very dirty secret of Polling Companies. The Poll HAS to say what those paying for the poll want. No surprise here.
3 people like this.

Reply 28 - Posted by: enemyofthestate 6/12/2024 3:42:12 PM (No. 1736041)
Conservatives and patriots, keep your powder dry.
0 people like this.

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