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A counterintuitive take on the risk that
China poses to the world

Original Article

Posted By: DVC, 2/16/2023 10:09:30 PM

David Archibald, an Australian scientist and analyst, counterintuitively argues that China is weaker than we think. I don’t agree with everything Archibald says, both factually and theoretically, but I thought his essay is interesting enough to bring to your attention. The premise of Archibald’s claim that China is not as forbidding as Xi Jinping makes it appear is summed up in a single sentence: “China has a lot of structural problems that make it a fragile state, a frail state and even potentially a future failed state.” Archibald makes five major points: One: China’s demographic games have been disastrous. Mao, who believed in big battalions, deliberately encouraged massive population growth

Comments:

Widberg writes of an Australian who has an interesting view of China. I have seen several other commentators that.have similar views. And the global cooling idea matches what I think from the sunspot cycles.

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Reply 1 - Posted by: Maggie2u 2/17/2023 2:20:58 AM (No. 1404879)
First time I've seen someone bring up the fact that the mothers of these soldiers just might object to their only child being killed in a war the mothers don't see as necessary to the well being of the nation. Can you imagine millions of parents rioting in the streets?
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Reply 2 - Posted by: Strike3 2/17/2023 3:45:40 AM (No. 1404896)
I completely agree, China would have taken Taiwan already if they were militarily able and comfortable that they could take and hold it. Russia found itself in the same dilemma when they failed to conquer Ukraine in a matter of days and their efforts have brought them down to the last batch of old, rusted equipment and unwilling, unmotivated soldiers. The sad part is that the United States is in the same condition and a real test of our power will result in complete failure, just judging by our performance in relatively easy operations in the past two years. Our once-proud military has been reduced to incompetent leadership and an insufficient number of people in uniform who are not sure what gender they are.
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Reply 3 - Posted by: Highlander 2/17/2023 5:29:46 AM (No. 1404926)
It is one thing to have a vast military in terms of sheer numbers of personnel; it is quite another to transport these troops. Abundant cannon fodder works best on home soil as a defense. It’s not so advantageous to move the same amount of fodder to foreign soil thousands of miles from home. Germany was able to conquer mainland Europe because most of its prey were so close together. China could try pouring into Southeast Asia and perhaps Taiwan, Japan, and Russia, with their multitudinous soldiers, if those countries have poor defenses, like Czechoslovakia and Poland against Hitler. Vietnam has repelled China in the past. Taiwan, I venture, is prepared to fight hard. The same with South Korea. Japan is making moves towards nuclear defense. The Chinese people are having a tough go at feeding themselves, according to this article. Imagine them having to feed and supply millions of hungry soldiers in wartime. We had to ration hard our resources in WWII, and it wasn’t easy. I think war would be too costly to risk, for Xi. Don’t forget, there’s still plenty of us that are armed, in spite of the democrats’ best efforts to neutralize their fellow Americans. I have little faith in our current military and civilian leadership. It’s going to be up to us deplorables, if we are invaded, from the north (by way of Canada) or the south (Mexico). I don’t see either being likely in my remaining lifetime. Just my observation.
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Posted by DVC 2/16/2023 10:09:30 PM Post Reply
David Archibald, an Australian scientist and analyst, counterintuitively argues that China is weaker than we think. I don’t agree with everything Archibald says, both factually and theoretically, but I thought his essay is interesting enough to bring to your attention. The premise of Archibald’s claim that China is not as forbidding as Xi Jinping makes it appear is summed up in a single sentence: “China has a lot of structural problems that make it a fragile state, a frail state and even potentially a future failed state.” Archibald makes five major points: One: China’s demographic games have been disastrous. Mao, who believed in big battalions, deliberately encouraged massive population growth
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